AI Could Soon Predict Which Back Pain Treatments Will Actually Work for You

If you've ever suffered from chronic lower back pain, you know the frustration: you try a treatment, wait weeks to see if it helps, and sometimes it doesn't. But what if your doctor could predict ahead of time whether a specific therapy would work for you? New research suggests that's closer than you might think.

How AI Could Transform Back Pain Treatment

Researchers recently analyzed data from 431 patients with chronic non-specific lower back pain who underwent lumbar extension traction (LET)—a conservative treatment that gently stretches the lower spine to realign the natural curve of the lumbar spine. The team used three different machine learning models to predict which patients would benefit most from the therapy and how much improvement they'd see.

The results were impressive. The most accurate model, called XGBoost, correctly predicted pain scores with an accuracy rate of 64.8% and lumbar alignment improvements with 72.8% accuracy. This means the AI could identify beforehand which patients were likely to experience significant relief.

Real Improvements, Real Numbers

The patients in the study received traction 3 to 6 times per week for 4 to 10 weeks as part of a broader spine rehabilitation program. The improvements were substantial: pain scores dropped from 7.3 out of 10 to 3.3 out of 10, and disability scores improved from 33.2% to 10.4%. The spine's natural curve also improved by 11.5 to 23.6 degrees.

What Makes the Difference?

The AI analysis identified five key factors that predict whether someone will respond well to traction therapy: your body type (BMI), how well you stick to the treatment plan, how often you receive traction, your spine's curve before treatment starts, and your overall body composition. Compliance—simply showing up and doing the treatment—emerged as one of the most important predictors of success.

This insight matters because it means doctors could use these factors to have honest conversations with patients upfront. If you're someone with a higher BMI or a history of skipping appointments, your doctor might adjust the frequency of your treatments or discuss what commitment the therapy requires.

Why This Matters for Your Back Pain Journey

Currently, back pain treatment is often a guessing game. Patients try different therapies and hope something sticks. But this research suggests a future where treatment is more personalized and predictable. Instead of spending weeks on a therapy that might not work for you, doctors could use AI to identify the most promising option from the start.

The research also highlights that conservative treatments like traction can be highly effective for many people—producing pain relief comparable to or better than surgery in some cases, especially in the short to medium term.

What's Next?

While this research is promising, it's important to note that machine learning models work best when they're tested on diverse patient populations. The next step will be validating these findings in other groups of patients to ensure the predictions hold up in real-world clinical settings.

If you're dealing with chronic lower back pain, this research suggests that personalized, data-driven treatment planning is on the horizon. Talk to your doctor about whether you might be a good candidate for traction therapy, and don't underestimate the importance of sticking with your treatment plan—it's one of the strongest predictors of success.