Good News for Women: Lung Cancer Deaths in Europe Are Finally Leveling Off

After more than 25 years of steadily climbing rates, lung cancer deaths among women in European Union countries are finally leveling off, according to new predictions for 2026. Researchers predict that age-standardized death rates from lung cancer among European Union women will stabilize at around 12.5 deaths per 100,000 women in 2026, representing a fall of just over 5% since 2020-2022.

Why Are Death Rates Finally Stabilizing?

The shift comes down to smoking patterns that started decades ago. "The reason for this pattern is that men everywhere started smoking earlier than women. In the US and UK, women started smoking earlier than women in most EU countries, but they also started to stop earlier," said Professor Carlo La Vecchia from the University of Milan, who led the research published in Annals of Oncology.

The timing varies significantly by country. In the United Kingdom, lung cancer death rates among women have been falling for several years and are predicted to drop by 13.4% compared to 2020-2022, with 14.85 deaths per 100,000 women. However, Spain stands out as the exception, where female lung cancer death rates will continue to rise by 2.4% in 2026, with around 10 deaths per 100,000 women.

What Does This Mean for Different Age Groups?

The improvements aren't uniform across all ages. These positive changes will only be seen in women aged 64 years or younger, while lung cancer death rates will continue to rise among older women. This pattern reflects the generational differences in when women started and stopped smoking.

The research team analyzed cancer death rates across multiple factors, examining data from the World Health Organisation and United Nations databases from 1970 to 2022. They looked at the five most populous European Union countries and studied various cancer types including:

• Lung Cancer: The leading cause of cancer death for both sexes, with mortality rates continuing to decline among men
• Pancreatic Cancer: Death rates have leveled off after previously increasing, likely reflecting improvements in occupational and environmental carcinogens
• Colorectal Cancer: Mortality is increasing in the UK and northern Europe among people younger than 50, likely due to overweight, obesity and diabetes
• Overall Cancer Deaths: Predicted to decline by 7.8% for men and 5.9% for women in the EU by 2026

How Significant Is This Progress?

The numbers tell a remarkable story of prevention success. "We estimate that, since a peak in 1988, a total of around 7.3 million deaths from cancer have been avoided in the EU and 1.5 million deaths in the UK, assuming that death rates had remained constant at their 1988 levels," explained Professor Eva Negri from the University of Bologna, co-leader of the research.

Among men specifically, 1.8 million deaths from lung cancer have been avoided over that time period, though no deaths were averted among women during the same timeframe. This highlights why the current stabilization in female lung cancer deaths represents such important progress.

Despite these improvements in death rates, the actual number of cancer deaths will still rise due to Europe's aging population. In the European Union, deaths will increase from 666,924 between 2020-2022 to 684,600 in men by 2026, and from 534,988 to 544,900 in women. However, the UK will see relatively stable numbers for both sexes.

The researchers emphasize that tobacco control remains the cornerstone of lung cancer prevention. "Strengthening taxation, implementing advertising bans, creating smoke-free environments, and providing cessation support are essential to closing regional and socioeconomic gaps, and achieving sustained reductions in cancer mortality across Europe," the study authors concluded.