China is introducing a 13% sales tax on condoms and other contraceptives starting this year, marking the first time these products have been taxed in over three decades. The policy shift reflects the government's broader effort to encourage births as the country faces a shrinking population, but experts caution that making contraception more expensive could backfire, particularly for women with limited financial resources.

Why Is China Taxing Contraceptives Now?

For the past decade, China has been rolling out a series of incentives designed to encourage families to have more children. After decades of enforcing a strict one-child policy, the government now permits up to three children per couple and has introduced various financial and workplace benefits to promote larger families.

The contraceptive tax is part of a broader overhaul of China's value-added tax (VAT) system, which was updated through legislation passed in 2024. Condoms and other birth control products were exempt from the 13% VAT when the national tax system was introduced in the early 1990s. Now, after more than 30 years of exemption, they will be subject to the standard tax rate.

What Other Birth-Encouragement Measures Has China Implemented?

The contraceptive tax is just one piece of a much larger policy puzzle. The Chinese government has been experimenting with multiple approaches to reverse declining birth rates:

• Financial Incentives: Local governments are testing discounts on in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment and offering financial bonuses to families who have additional children.
• Workplace Benefits: Some municipal authorities are providing newlyweds with extra paid leave to encourage marriage and family formation.
• Childcare Support: The government allocated 90 billion yuan for a nationwide child support initiative, offering 3,600 yuan annually for every child under age three.
• Healthcare Expansion: State medical coverage has been expanded to cover all childbirth-related expenses.
• Tax Deductions: The updated tax legislation provides deductions for childcare costs and "marriage introduction services."

Despite these substantial efforts, the results have been disappointing. In 2024, China's birth rate was 6.77 births per thousand people, only a marginal increase from the previous year and far below historical levels.

How Might the Contraceptive Tax Affect Women's Access to Birth Control?

The practical impact of the new tax may be limited in terms of revenue generation. An average box of condoms costs between 40 and 60 yuan (roughly $6 to $8.50), and contraceptive pills available over the counter cost between 50 and 130 yuan per monthly supply. The 13% tax would add only a few dollars to these prices. Analysts estimate the tax could generate approximately 5 billion yuan annually, a negligible amount compared to China's total public budget revenue of 22 trillion yuan.

However, experts warn that the symbolic message of the policy may be more consequential than the financial impact. The tax signals government disapproval of contraceptive use and could create barriers for vulnerable populations.

"If access to contraception did become difficult, the worst consequences will be endured by females, especially those from poorer backgrounds," stated Yun Zhou, a sociologist.

Yun Zhou, Sociologist

Zhou added that while the tax itself is unlikely to change personal reproductive choices, it communicates to the public "what desirable family behaviour should be" from the government's perspective.

Zhou

What Are Experts Saying About the Tax's Effectiveness?

Population experts are skeptical that taxing contraceptives will meaningfully increase birth rates. He Yafu, an autonomous population expert, acknowledged that the policy is logical given China's shift from discouraging to encouraging births, but cautioned about its real-world impact.

"However, this measure is unlikely to have a major impact on raising the birth rate," said He Yafu, an autonomous population expert.

He Yafu, Autonomous Population Expert

Analysts also dispute the government's stated motivation for the tax. While cash-strapped local governments need revenue, the contraceptive tax is unlikely to generate substantial income. "We do not believe revenue generation is the primary motivation behind applying this tax to birth control," according to policy analysts cited in reporting on the issue.

Are There Signs of More Coercive Policies Ahead?

Perhaps most concerning to observers are reports of increasingly intrusive government monitoring of women's reproductive choices. In some regions, women have received phone calls from municipal officials asking about their menstrual cycles and reproductive intentions. In one county in Yunnan province, women were reportedly told to disclose the date of their last period to local authorities.

These reports have sparked alarm on Chinese social media, with users expressing concern that the government may be moving toward more coercive measures. One netizen wrote: "Today they require all women to report the time of their period, next it will be the timing of intimacy, soon they'll be phoning to recommend sex during fertility windows... [this is] mass breeding".

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The contraceptive tax, combined with these monitoring efforts, suggests that China's approach to boosting birth rates may be shifting from incentive-based policies toward more restrictive measures that could significantly impact women's reproductive autonomy and access to family planning services.